LUDHIANA: The political temperature in Punjab is rising as the Ludhiana West Assembly constituency gears up for a crucial by-election, viewed by many as a litmus test for the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) amid growing public dissatisfaction and internal dissent.
The seat fell vacant following the tragic death of sitting AAP MLA Gurpreet Gogi, who allegedly died of a self-inflicted gunshot wound from his own revolver earlier this year. Gogi, originally a Congress legislator, had defected to AAP ahead of the 2022 Assembly elections and rode the wave of anti-incumbency to secure a decisive win.
However, the political climate has shifted considerably since 2022, and AAP’s dominance in Punjab appears to be under increasing strain.
Key Contenders
The bypoll will see a triangular contest featuring three prominent candidates:
Bharat Bhushan Ashu, senior Congress leader and two-time MLA, is looking to reclaim his position in his traditional stronghold.
Sanjeev Arora, a Rajya Sabha MP from AAP, is contesting to retain the seat for the party amid swirling speculation that his election to the Assembly could vacate a Rajya Sabha seat for former Delhi Chief Minister and AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal.
Parupkar Singh Ghuman, a lawyer and political novice, represents the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which last won this seat in 2002 under Harish Dhanda.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has so far not fielded a candidate in the bypoll.
Corruption Allegations and Legal Victory
One of the defining issues in the election is the corruption cases filed against Bharat Bhushan Ashu by the AAP government. Ashu, who served as Food and Civil Supplies Minister under the Captain Amarinder Singh-led Congress government, was booked by the Vigilance Bureau in multiple cases.
Ashu, however, alleged political vendetta, claiming that the cases were orchestrated to tarnish his image ahead of the elections. In a major relief, the Punjab and Haryana High Court recently quashed all cases against him, effectively giving him a clean chit. This legal vindication has become a central talking point in Ashu’s campaign and is resonating with his supporters, who view the action as misuse of power by the AAP government.
Shifting Sentiments and Anti-Incumbency
Once a Congress stronghold, Ludhiana West has seen the party win this seat six times in the past 40 years. AAP’s 2022 sweep disrupted the equation, but the tide appears to be turning due to widespread dissatisfaction, particularly among farmers and industrialists.
Farmer groups have turned hostile after the forcible removal of protest dharnas at Shambhu and Khanauri borders by the Mann government. The community has since distanced itself from AAP.
In addition, AAP's much-hyped Nasha Mukti Yatra has failed to garner public support, with events reportedly open only to invitees. A recent Agarsain Maha Sabha function in Nabha, attended by both Kejriwal and CM Mann, witnessed a poor turnout, indicating waning public enthusiasm.
The business community of Ludhiana, an industrial hub, is also at odds with the government due to alleged harassment by tax officials, contributing to a broader anti-incumbency sentiment.
Concerns Over Central Interference and Local Discontent
Public resentment is also mounting against the increasing interference of Delhi-based AAP leadership in Punjab’s affairs. Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia are perceived to be calling the shots, while outsiders have been appointed to key posts, including the Punjab Pollution Control Board and Punjab Large Industrial Development Board.
A major undercurrent in the Ludhiana West by-election is the speculation surrounding Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s political ambitions in Punjab. Opposition parties have seized upon the widely discussed claim that Kejriwal is eyeing a Rajya Sabha seat from Punjab and has strategically fielded current Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora as the AAP candidate for this Assembly seat. They allege that Arora’s victory would create a vacancy in the upper house, paving the way for Kejriwal’s entry into Parliament from Punjab.
This narrative has gained traction during the campaign, with rivals accusing AAP of prioritizing Kejriwal’s political positioning over the interests of the state, turning the by-election into a referendum on outside interference and Delhi-centric control of Punjab’s governance.
Voter Profile and Political Stakes
The Ludhiana West constituency comprises 1, 74, 437 registered voters, including 89, 602 men and 84, 825 women. While AAP banks on its power advantage and Kejriwal’s campaign blitz, Congress sees a real opening with Ashu’s legal victory and the party’s historical base in the region.
For AAP, retaining this seat is critical to its credibility. A loss here would not only dent Bhagwant Mann’s leadership but could also signal the beginning of AAP’s decline in Punjab. For Congress, a win would be a symbolic resurgence. For SAD, it’s a test of its relevance.
As the bypoll campaign intensifies, Ludhiana West stands at the crossroads of political realignment — and Punjab is watching closely.