NEW DELHI: India’s trade momentum remains firm despite global volatility, and the current account is expected to slip into a modest deficit before turning into positive territory, a report said on Saturday.
The report from SBI Research forecasts that the current account deficit (CAD) will be about 1.8 per cent and 2.8 per cent of GDP in Q2 and Q3 FY26, respectively, before it will turn into the positive territory in Q4 FY26.
It projects a full fiscal‑year deficit of roughly 1–1.3 per cent and a marginal overall balance‑of‑payments deficit of up to $10 billion for FY26.
"Even though balance of payments (BOP) will turn negative in FY26, the alarm bells that are being sounded regarding its impact on rupee movements seems to be a little overblown at this point, " the report said.