By Satinder Bains
LUDHIANA: As Ludhiana West awaits the outcome of its high-stakes by-election, to be declared on June 23, political temperatures are soaring across Punjab. The polling, held on June 19 following the untimely death of AAP MLA Gurpreet Gogi, saw a multi-cornered contest between Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The seat, a key urban constituency of Ludhiana city, is home to a mix of affluent business families and a large factory workforce. The bypoll is being seen not just as a local electoral battle, but also as a test of political sentiment ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections.
AAP’s Prestige at Stake
For the ruling AAP, the by-election is nothing short of a prestige battle. In 2022, the party had won the seat with a significant margin riding on a state-wide wave. This time, the stakes are even higher. AAP has fielded sitting Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora, a businessman-turned-politician, with eyes set on vacating his Rajya Sabha seat—possibly for AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal.
Sources allege the AAP government deployed massive resources, including administrative machinery and police, to swing the seat in its favour. Opposition parties have accused AAP of resorting to unfair means such as bribing voters with ration, money, and other inducements—charges the party has denied.
Congress Bets on Former Minister Ashu
Congress has fielded former minister Bharat Bhushan Ashu, a two-time winner from the seat (2012 and 2017). Known for his grassroots presence, Ashu ran an aggressive campaign using local networks and his previous track record.
However, internal party dynamics were evident. Ashu leaned on support from the Charanjit Singh Channi camp, maintaining distance from PPCC chief Amarinder Singh Raja Warring and CLP leader Partap Singh Bajwa. Though both Warring and Bajwa campaigned for him, observers believe it was largely to project unity in front of AICC observer and Punjab in-charge Bhupesh Baghel. If Congress loses, the blame is expected to fall squarely on Ashu.
SAD and BJP Fight to Regain Footing
SAD (Badal), struggling to regain urban ground, fielded Advocate Parupkar Singh Ghuman, a first-time contestant with a respectable image among the legal fraternity. However, the party’s rural base and the declining popularity of president Sukhbir Singh Badal have made it difficult to make inroads in the city-centric seat.
BJP, on the other hand, announced its candidate Jeewan Gupta late into the nomination process, limiting his campaign window. Despite that, Gupta, a well-regarded figure from the Baniya community, has garnered attention. While a win seems unlikely, political watchers say he could play spoiler for AAP by attracting a significant portion of the business community’s votes—ironically the same voter base AAP tried to woo using Arvind Kejriwal’s caste identity.
Referendum or Localized Battle?
Some observers view the Ludhiana West bypoll as a mini-referendum for the 2027 Assembly elections, though others argue it is too urban and demographically unrepresentative to reflect Punjab’s broader political climate—80 percent of the state still resides in villages.
Discontent among the agrarian community, especially after the forcible removal of farmer protests at Khanauri and Shambhu, and CM Bhagwant Mann's remarks against protesting farmers, have cost AAP significant ground in rural Punjab. While that sentiment may not impact this urban constituency directly, it could shape narratives going forward.
Verdict Awaited
As the countdown to results begins, Ludhiana West remains on edge. Whether AAP retains its stronghold, Congress stages a comeback, or BJP delivers an unexpected blow remains to be seen. But one thing is clear—the outcome will set the tone for Punjab’s political realignments ahead of 2027.