By Satinder Bains
CHANDIGARH: The Bhartiaya Janta Party(BJP) and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) long time alliance partners in Punjab have been chalking out their strategies to contest assembly elections of 2007 independently or with new political partners.
Both SAD and BJP are focussing on about 32 percent dalit voters and about 40 percent urban vote bank. Sensing mood in the BJP camp, the SAD understood to have been considering other options including a tie up with the Bahujan Samaj Party. BJP understood to have played the dalit card to pre-empt the Akali move to approach BSP. BJP has appointed a dalit leader Ram ShankaR Katheria MP from Agra incharge of Punjab and also promoted Vijay Sampla another dalit face of BJP Vijay Sampla MP from Hoshiarpur to the rank of minister of state in the Modi government. BSP has its base in the Doabna region only comprising Hoshiarpur, Jalandhar and Nawan shehar districts.
Though SAD had formed government in alliance with BSP in the year 1992 with 17.59 percent votes, the BSP had lost its base in the state and failede to win even single seat in the previous assembly and Lok Sabha seats. BSP's vote bank was reduced to 4.28 percent only. BSP is riddled by internal conflict and after its split few years back Bahujan Samaj Morcha grabbed most of its vote bank. Morcha also failed to make its presence in the elections.
The third player Congress party which had mass base among dalit voters has gradually lost its control over the community. Dalits remained neglected lot durign Congress and SAD rule. BJP is though part of SAD-BJP government but it has little say in framing policies. BJP is expected to highlight this point among dalit voters to woo them to support it. SAD and BJP had strained relations during last decade and any alliance between SAD and BJP would be seen opportrunistic.
SAD has engineered defection of many BSP leaders. SAD has been grooming dalit leader Pawan Kumar Tinu who defected from BSP to join SAD. Avinash Chander another dalit leader of BSP was hand picked by SAD in 2007 and he was elected from Kartarpur assembly seat. Both of them were made Chief Parliamentary Secretaries in the SAD-BJP government.
Another former BSP leader and now CPS, Des Raj Dhugga, is the SAD MLA form Sri Hargobindpur since 2007. He had switched loyalties from the BSP to the SAD after he got significant votes on a BSP ticket in the 1997 and 2002 assembly polls. Another prominant BSP leader Satnam Singh Kainth had joined Congress party.Mangat Ram Bansal now SAD MLA was once BSP leader and Charanjit Singh Channi Congress MLA from Chamkaur Sahib was product of BSP. Dr. Sukhwinder Sukhi another BSP leader from Hoshiarpur had joined SAD. He had got one lakh votes in 2009 Lok Sabha election from Hoshiarpur and now made Chairman of district planning Board Nawan Shehar.
At present SAD-BJP government in Punjab is facing strong anti-incumbency. The anti-urban policies of state government have eroded the base of BJP in cities. If BJP goes to 2017 assembly poll, it is boudn to get drubbing. Under these circumstances, BJP would have right opportunity to distance itself from SAD and go alone in the elections. Even if they would not win majority, BJP would revive its lost base among urban voters. However the Haryana experience has encouraged to BJP to find its ground in Punjab.
Navjot Sidhu former MP from Amritsar is another trump card in the hand of BJP which it would like to play in Punjab. Being a Jatt Sikh he has his own constituency among the young Sikhs. SAD is only feared of Navjot Sidhu and waqnted to neutralize him before 2017 assembly elections. It was in this background that SAD managed to oust him from Amritsar Lok Sabha seat and bring Arun Jaitely to contest from Amritsar. The move by SAD however backfired due to defeat of Jiately and ties between SAD and BJP took turn for the worst.
BJP has appointed atleast half a dozen Jatt Sikhs in the state BJP including some of the district presidents. The SAD has also appointed Hindus as district presidents in about four districts to counter BJP in its den.
The statements by Punjab Chief Minister Mr. Parkash Singh Badal that communal harmony will be disturbed in Punjab if BJP breaks alliance with SAD are sign of utter desperation. On the other hand Akali leaders are also stating that SAD is capable of going alone in the 2017 elections. Badal knows the fact that they cant return to power without the support of BJP. BSP may be last hope for SAD if alliance is broken.