MUMBAI: The three-day Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, starting Monday, is widely expected to hold its key policy rate at 5.50 per cent.
However, a surprise cut cannot be ruled out amid US trade tariffs and low inflation, according to analysts.
The RBI has cut rates by 100 basis points since the start of the year.
The MPC meeting is scheduled from September 29 to October 1, where the central bank is expected to review interest rates. Currently, the repo rate stands at 5.5 per cent.
The RBI had left the policy rate unchanged in the previous review, but since February 2025, it has lowered the repo rate by nearly one percentage point.
According to experts, the Central Bank is anticipated to maintain the status quo on the repo rate, considering the positive impact of GST reforms on demand, stronger-than-expected Q1 FY26 GDP growth, and an inflation trajectory which is expected to slope upwards thereafter.
The inflation trajectory remained lower due to GST rationalisation (FY2026 average now around 2.6 per cent), according to credit rating agency ICRA.